AgriCharts Market Commentary

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September 25, 2017

Corn futures closed the day fractionally higher in most contacts, getting a little help from wheat. The US corn harvest was reported at 11% this afternoon, compared to the average of 17% for this week. National corn condition ratings were unchanged on the gd/ex ratings at 51%, but up 1 on the Brugler500 to 358 as 1% was moved from good to excellent.The USDA announced exports of 738,779 MT for the week of September 21 this morning. That is 7.38% larger than last week and 45.58% behind the same week a year ago. Inspections YTD (through the first three weeks of the 17/18 marketing year) are less than half of the same time period last year. Chinese imports of corn during August totaled 380,000 MT nearly 14 times larger than August 2016, but just a drop in the bucket compared to what they used to buy.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.53 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.74 3/4, up 1/4 cent

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.81 3/4, up 1/4 cent


September 25, 2017

Soybean futures settled Monday with most contracts 9 1/4 to 13 cents in the red. Oct soy meal was down $4.90/ton, with nearby bean oil 21 points lower. The USDA indicated that US soybeans were 10% harvested as of Sunday, vs. the average of 12%. Soybean condition ratings were up 1% in gd/ex and 1 higher on the Brugler500 to 356. This morning’s Export Inspections report showed soybean exports of 1.03 MMT, 10.59% ahead of last week and more than 2.6 times larger than a year ago. Soybean shipments YTD are 33.39% above last year. China is expected to auction off 300,000 MT of soybeans from state reserves on Friday. This would be the first soybean auction in nearly a year. They want to rotate inventory just like the US used to do in the Reserve days.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.71 1/4, down 13 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.81 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.90 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.06, down 11 3/4 cents,

Oct 17 Soybean Meal closed at $310.10, down $4.90,

Oct 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.78, down $0.21


September 25, 2017

Wheat futures started the week with most CBT and KC contracts 2 to 4 1/2 cents higher. MPLS was the strongest, 7 to 14 3/4 cents higher. The US winter wheat crop was 24% planted by Sunday, as reported by the USDA this afternoon. That is compared to the average and last year’s 28%. Wheat export inspections for the week ending 9/21 were up 6.67% on the week but were 44.41% lower than last year at 499,995 MT. Inspections of 9.227 MMT since June 1 are just 2.64% behind a year ago. The average trade estimate for spring wheat production is 380 million bushels in a Bloomberg survey, with September 1 wheat stocks at 2.203 billion bushels.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.54, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.54, up 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.48 3/4, up 14 cents


September 25, 2017

Live cattle finished the Monday session with most contracts sharply lower, as Dec was limit down following Friday’s COF report. Feeder cattle futureswere down the limit in most front months, although Sep was $2.925 lower because it has to converge with cash this week. There will be expanded limits of $4.50 for live and $6.75 for FC on Tuesday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.16 at $152.60 on September 22. Wholesale beef prices were sharply higher in the Monday afternoon report. Choice was $2.36 higher at $193.96, while select boxes were up $2.16 at $190.89. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday, 6,000 more than the previous week the same week in 2016. Last week’s cash sales were mostly around the $108 mark.

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $109.225, down $2.350,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $114.425, down $3.000,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $117.250, down $2.800,

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.475, down $2.925

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.600, down $4.500

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.125, down $4.500

Lean Hogs

September 25, 2017

Lean hog ended Monday with most nearby contracts a nickel to 80 cents higher and back months lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/21 was $1.04 lower than the previous day at $59.08. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 80 cent higher at $73.50 in the Monday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass price was down 74 cents in the PM report at $47.75. Estimated FI hog slaughter hit 460,000 head on Monday, 9,000 head larger than last week and 18,000 larger than the same week in 2016.

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $56.325, up $0.625,

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $57.425, up $0.800

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $62.600, up $0.700


September 25, 2017

Cotton futures were 68 to 100 points higher on Monday, despite a sharp rise in the US dollar (up 489 points). The US cotton harvest was reported as 14% complete through Sunday, compared to the average of 9%. Ratings came in at 60% gd/ex, down 1% since last week, as the Brugler500 fell 1 to 357. The USDA updated their AWP to 60.91 cents/lb, down 236 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for September 22 was down 95 points from the previous day at 78.55 cents/lb. China sold another 29,600 MT of cotton in Monday’s auction of state reserves that saw 30,000 MT offered.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 70.090, up 100 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 69.460, up 100 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 69.060, up 90 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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