AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 21, 2017

Corn futures closed Friday with losses of 7 to 11 1/4 cents in most contracts, with Sep gaining 3 1/2 cents on the week. Friday morning showed showers rolling across dry portions of Northern NE and Southern SD. Recent bulls were cashing out rather than risking gains over the weekend. The afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders had added 3,706 contracts to their net long position of 104,670 contracts in corn futures and options trading. Consultant Informa updated their 2017 US corn yield projection to 166.2 bushels per acre, down 3.5 bpa from their previous estimate, with production at 13.9 billion bushels. On Friday, China sold 1.873 MMT of 3.366 MMT of 2013 and 2014 corn offered at an auction of state reserves.

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.04 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents

May 18 Corn closed at $4.09 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents

Soybeans

July 21, 2017

Soybean futures settled with steady to 4 3/4 losses on Friday, on pre-weekend profit taking. Aug ended the week up 2.02% since last Friday. Front month soy meal was 80 cents/ton lower, with Aug 17 soy oil 17 points in the red. Managed money was shown to add 19,303 contracts to their net long position, now at 38,351 contracts in soybean futures and options trading. The Argentine Ag Ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimates to 55 MMT, down 2MMT from their previous projection. August options expired today, but bears were unable to get the $10 pin.

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $10.09, down 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $10.14 1/4, down 4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $10.22 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.33 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal closed at $329.70, down $0.80,

Aug 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.80, down $0.17

Wheat

July 21, 2017

Wheat futures posted 5 to 7 3/4 cent losses in most KC and CBT contracts, as MPLS was 9 to 12 1/4 cents lower in most contracts. The Sep contract in KC as down 3.41% on the week, with CBE 2.25% lower, as MPLS saw gains of 1.02%. Spring wheat yield for 2017 was lowered 2.2 bpa to 38.1 bpa by Informa on Thursday afternoon, with their production estimate dropping 23 mbu to 400 mbu. These are still higher than some other recent trade projections. Spec funds backed 2,193 contracts on their net largest recorded net long position to 70,918 contracts in KC wheat futures and options. In CBT wheat futures and options, they lowered their net long position to 35,926 contracts, a drop of 8,759 contracts. The US ag attach in Australia lowered their wheat production estimate for the crop to be harvested this fall to 22 MMT, 1.5 MMT lower than the latest USDA projection.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.96, down 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.65 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents

Cattle

July 21, 2017

Live cattle futures finished the day with most contracts 7.5 to 55 cents in the green. Feeder cattle futures were also 50 to $1.10 in the green on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.81 on July 20 to $149.03. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes down 74 cents at $206.91 and select 78 cents lower at $194.80. Week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter is 622,000 head through Saturday, 7,000 below last week and 25,000 above the same week last year. Cash trade was even with last week and higher from earlier this week at $119.50 to $120.50 across most regions. The USDA showed cattle on feed July 1 at 10.821 million head, a 4.49% jump over last year, with June placements of 1.77 million head 16.07% larger than 2016. Both of those were well above the trade guess. June marketings were lower than expectations at 1.989 million head, up 4.03% from last year. The Cattle Inventory report indicated all cattle and calves at 102.6 million head, 4.5% larger than the last July report in 2015. The Beef cow inventory was at 32.5 million head, 6.6% larger than 2015, with heifers for replacement down 2.1% from two years ago at 4.7 million head.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $116.425, up $0.550,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $117.400, up $0.325,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $118.175, up $0.075,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.950, up $0.675

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.150, up $0.825

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.950, up $1.100

Lean Hogs

July 21, 2017

Lean hog futures ended with nearby contracts steady to 97.5 cents lower and back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/19 was 40 cents lower than the previous day at $92.00. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.24 lower in the Friday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $102.78. All primal cuts were lower, with the butt down $5.94. The national base hog carcass price was 88 cents lower with a weighted average of $83.33 in this afternoon’s report. FI hog slaughter through Saturday was estimated at 2,213,000 head, 18,000 head more than last week and 72,000 more than the same week in 2016.

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $81.100, unch,

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $67.225, down $0.625

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $61.975, down $0.975

Cotton

July 21, 2017

Cotton futures closed Friday trade with losses of 40 to 56 points, despite the US dollar dropping 332 points to the lowest in over a year. The Cotlook A index for July 20 was at 84.20 cents/lb, steady with the previous day. As of July 18, managed money was shown to decrease their net long position for the ninth week in a row, to 17,363 contracts. This is their smallest net long position in 15 months. The new AWP good today through next Thursday was updated to 64.87 cents/lb, down 60 points. The Seam showed light cash sales of 352 bales at 67.5 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 69.140, down 41 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 68.420, down 56 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 68.620, down 49 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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