Ag Market Commentary
Brugler Marketing and Management, LLC - BRUG - Thu Jul 12, 12:05PM CDT

Corn futures are trading 5 to 6 cents higher post report, ignoring soon to expire July. This morning’s USDA S&D report showed old crop stocks of US corn down 75 mbu from last month at 2.027 bbu, a surprise cut caused by bigger export assumptions. New crop went against expectations and stocks were trimmed 25 mbu to 1.577 bbu. The 2018/19 production was up 190 mbu at 14.23 bbu on larger acreage but that was partially offset by increased demand. The WASDE also showed a 1.5 MMT reduction to Brazil production at 83.5 MMT. That helped to drop 17/18 world ending stocks to 191.73 MMT. New crop world stocks are projected at 151.96 MMT, down 2.73 from June’s report. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed old crop corn sales in the week of July 5 on the low end of expectations at 402,102 MT, but well above the same holiday week last year. Net reductions of 435,100 MT were shown for unknown destinations, most being switched to a country of destination. New crop sales fell short of estimates at just 128,035 MT.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.40 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.45 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.58 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.70 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents

Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents in the red at midday, following the USDA’s July WASDE release. Nearby soy meal is down $3.50/ton, with soy oil 3 points lower. The USDA cut 40 mbu from 17/18 US ending stocks to 465 mbu. New crop stocks were raised 195 mbu to 580 mbu, as production was up 40 mbu to 4.32 bbu. Exports also played a role, as they were down 250 mbu on assumed lost shipments to China. Crush use was increased. World ending stocks for old crop beans were up 3.53 to 96.02 MMT, with Brazil up 0.5 to 119.5 MMT. New crop stocks were up 11.25 MMT to 98.27 MMT. China’s ag ministry dropped their country’s total import number by 1.8 to 93.85 MMT, with the USDA slashing theirs by 8 to 95 MMT. US weekly soybean old crop export sales were shy of the range of estimates at just 158,507 MT. Most of the 296,900 MT in reductions for unknown were likely switched. A total of 270,840 MT were shown for new crop in this morning’s Export Sales report. Soy Meal sales of 78,190 MT were split between 17/18 and 18/19, with soy oil 31,408 MT in sales.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.28 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.30, down 3 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.35 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.45 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $329.50, down $3.50

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.30, down $0.03

Wheat futures are showing gains in most contracts at midday, with CBT leading the way. This morning’s NASS Crop Production report indicated that all wheat production is projected at 1.881 bbu, up 53 mbu. As expected the majority of the jump was from spring wheat, at 613.97 mbu. All winter wheat production was down 6 at 1.192 mbu, with HRW up 7 mbu, SRW down 12 mbu and white steady at 232 mbu. New crop US stocks were shown at 985 mbu, on par with estimates, and a 39 mbu jump from the previous estimate. World ending stocks were shown at 273.5 MMT for old crop, while new crop was down 5.28 to 260.88 MMT. A reduction to European countries helped, as Russia is now at 67 MMT and the EU down 5.4 to 145 MMT. Strategie Grains cut their EU production estimate 7.5 MMT to 132.4 MMT. All wheat export sales for 18/19 in the week that ended July 5 were just 136,408 MT, short of analysts’ expectations. That is slow for this time of year and down 73.7% from a year ago. Japan purchased 28,560 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender, with the other 34,335 MT sourced from Australia. Saudi Arabia is seeking 595,000 MT of wheat, with the tender to close on Friday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.82 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.80 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.29, up 3 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures are up 92.5 cents to $1.35 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are 87.5 cents to $1 higher on Thursday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.67 from the previous day at $145.08 on 7/10. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 82 cents to $206.62, while Select boxes were 34 cents lower at $196.80. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday at 359,000 head, up 6,000 the same week last year. Cash bids of $108 are still being reported this morning. All beef export sales in the week of 7/5 rose to 16,226 MT, with shipments shown at 15,285 MT. The USDA showed total US beef consumption in 2018 up 25 million pounds to 27.15 billion in their months S&D update.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $104.950, up $1.100,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $107.600, up $1.350,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $111.600, up $0.925,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.400, up $1.000

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.325, up $0.900

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.825, up $0.875

Lean hog futures are trading 27.5 cents to $1.35 higher in most contracts on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 15 cents on July 10, to $81.52. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 26 cents on Thursday morning at $83.86. The national base carcass price was down 73 cents from the previous day, reported at $75.36. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.357 million head through Wednesday, 39,000 head above last year. Weekly pork export sales totaled just 9,195 MT, as 18,461 MT of pork was shipped. This morning’s WASDE report from the WAOB showed pork production in 2018 up 30 million pounds from last month to 26.745 billion.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $80.050, up $0.275,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $70.150, up $1.350

Oct 18 Hogs are at $53.150, up $1.125

Cotton futures are currently 280 to 384 points higher at midday following the somewhat bullish USDA report. The USDA dropped their US cotton production projection to 18.5 million bales, down 1 million bales from last month on fewer harvested acres. That helped bring the new crop ending stocks down 700,000 bales to 4 million bales. Old crop world stocks were cut by 3.26 million bales to 84.96 on increased consumption and smaller beginning stocks. New crop world stocks were also reduced on the lower carryover and higher consumption to 77.84 million bales. Export sales of old crop upland cotton in the week that ended on July 5 were tallied at 121,603 RB, with just a little over 3 reporting weeks left in the MY. Vietnam purchased a majority of the total at 93,500 RB, with China buying 5,600 RB for old crop. New crop sales were reported at 251,429 RB. The Cotlook A index was up 85 points from the previous day on July 11 to 96.45 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 89.08, up 384 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.84, up 330 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 87.45, up 310 points

May 19 Cotton is at 87.030, up 280 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.