Corn - Just My Opinion
Tom Fritz of International Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Thu Jul 12, 3:24PM CDT

July Corn closed 5 cents higher ($3.36 ), Sept 5 cents higher ($3.45 ) & Dec 6 cents higher ($3.59 )

August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.411), Sept 0.008 cents higher ($1.409)

Highlights of the USDA Supply-Demand Corn Report US Old Crop lowered domestic usage 30 million bu. increased exports 100 million bu. lowered carryout 75 million bu. US New Crop lowered carryin 75 million bu. increased production 190 million bu. increased domestic usage 15 million bu. increased exports 125 million bu. lowered carryout 25 million bu. World Old Crop lowered carryin 230 K T. lowered production 1.03 M T. lowered total usage 300 K T. lowered carryout 960 K T. World New Crop lowered carryin 960 K T. increased production 1.88 M T. increased total usage 3.66 M T. lowered carryout 2.73 M T.

The bottomline to the US corn report is bullish. All of the new crop numbers came in lower vs. what the trade was expecting. With that said the onus has been put back on crop conditions and the need for some weather premium within the price structure.

River bids for corn are improving. Processors appear to be standing pat. The Gulf market appears to be improving. Dec forward corn spreads are trying to improve. The data from the USDA suggests the US will continue to be the corn market to the world until SAs new crop comes on line next spring. Its been a while since the corn market threw a bullish reversal at us but it did today. I wont call it a key reversal since we did not finish above Wednesdays high. It was an outside day involving new contract lows with a higher close. The heat we are currently experiencing is slated to break this weekend, late this weekend depending upon where you are in the Corn Belt. Rain is forecasted to accompany the break in the heat. Forecasts going forward are suggesting normal to below normal temps with a drier bias. Sunday night, Monday should prove to be very interesting since the pattern has been for blue Mondays.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/13

Sept Corn: $3.40 - $3.53

Dec Corn: $3.53 - $3.66

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